Q:

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Tamsin Ogilvie
The Senate
31 Mar 2020

A: SenseCheck

  • 1 Yes
  • 3 No
  • 0 Other

Newest Answer Oldest Answer

  • 16 Apr 2020
  • No

    Simple

    According to Taleb’s definition of a black swan, Covid-19 would have to be “1) an outlier outside of the realm of regular expectations because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility, 2) carry an extreme impact, 3) make us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it inexplainable and predictable.” So, if it is not a black swan...perhaps a “grey rhino” as argued by Michele Wucker...”this category of risk incorporates highly probable, high-impact yet neglected threats” https://www.avivainvestors.com/en-us/views/a…

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    Sandra Norman
    The Senate

  • Comment

  • 02 Apr 2020
  • Yes

    Other

    From a financial market prespective yes, as it has led to unprecedentedly high levels of volatility (as measured by VIX index) and an unprecedentedly sharp (deep and rapid) correction in equity markets.

  • Comment

  • 31 Mar 2020
  • No

    Complex

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    Adrian Smith
    The Senate

  • Comment

  • 31 Mar 2020
  • No

    Simple

    A “black swan” is something unexpected, for which failing to plan is excusable. Taleb's book (from which the term is drawn) explicitly portrays a global pandemic as a white swan because there can be great certainty that one will eventually take place.

    The black swan defence of bailing out corporations therefore seems without merit.

    https://medium.com/incerto/corporate-sociali…`

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    Olivia Allen
    The Senate

  • Comment